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Industry direct attack: is rare earth “not capped within the year” or has “peaked”?

2017 is a year of strong outbreak of rare earth in China. The trend formed by the continuous rise of rare earth minerals and rare earth products ignites not only the price but also the stock market. So whether it will be “no ceiling within the year” and “no end within the year” as the organization said, let’s see the in-depth analysis of senior practitioners in the rare earth industry.
Previous review
In April 2017, according to the industry conditions at that time, including shutdown, environmental protection, inventory and other factors, taking rare earth polishing powder as a typical representative, it is judged that it will continue to rise in the next 3-5 months, which is conservatively estimated to reach or exceed 20%.
Price comparison
We might as well make a comparison between the current price and the current price, and then make a follow-up analysis.
Current price fluctuation range: lanthanum oxide 1.4-1.5, cerium oxide 1.35-1.45, praseodymium oxide 59-61, neodymium oxide 48-49, praseodymium and neodymium oxide 50-52, metal neodymium 62-64, metal praseodymium and neodymium 63-65
In April, the listing prices of rare earths in the North: lanthanum oxide 1.46, cerium oxide 1.13, praseodymium oxide 35.5, neodymium oxide 29.1, praseodymium and neodymium oxide 29.3, metal neodymium 37.1, metal praseodymium and neodymium 37.3
Judgment analysis
First, as the current market growth has greatly exceeded expectations, downstream manufacturers can not digest the sharp rise in the upstream; Second, due to the poor market of rare earth in the past two years, everyone’s production is at a loss and there are a lot of inventories. This sharp rise, coupled with Baotou Steel’s rare earth control of light rare earth raw materials and environmental protection verification, there will be a lot of re production capacity in the near future, and the market price will tend to be stable in the future; Third, more foreign rare earth mines have been started. For the export of rare earths, Japan’s dependence on China’s rare earths is gradually decreasing.
For the above reasons, it can be predicted that prices will decline in September and October. It is only due to environmental protection and raw ore control factors that the current famine fear atmosphere in the market has additional support. It is reported that many domestic companies have imported ore from foreign countries such as Myanmar, which can also judge that the market has peaked.

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